The way a ball bounces—or, a single call in a game that is seemingly obsolete for a team—can dictate the direction of not only their franchise, but also that of others in similar position.

In this piece, we’ll be talking about the bad teams—in the NFL, there have been perennially bad organizations. Being bad in the NFL often is a product of poor roster management, irresponsible signings, inaccurate talent evaluation and scouting, and often a miscalculation of the talent in place. Other factors, of course, weigh in. But with the draft being such an emphasis on team-building, since the career average for players remains quite low, hitting on players—especially top picks—can be one of the biggest way for a team to turn their franchise around. That ostensibly becomes easier with having high picks in the draft.

In this exercise, we are going to compare the NFL Draft to the NBA lottery using an identical model. While the latter implements a lottery system for the 14 teams that missed the postseason, much has been made of the matter of luck that can be involved in landing a generational talent. With 2023 being a fascinating case—given that Victor Wembanyama is considered to be a generational talent—there is an opportunity to examine fate, chance, and the current system in the NFL, and how certain teams might have been shaped over the years if there was a similar system in place for the NFL.

Note: For classes that involved trades at the top part of the draft, we can assume that most teams would have taken a similar compensation package, if they were not needing a quarterback themselves; for that reason, those classes are not considered in this exercise. 

In Short:

The NBA lottery rules: The 14 teams, out of the 30 in the league, that did not qualify for the playoffs are entered into a lottery system. A team with the worst record can finish with no worse than the fourth-pick. The teams with the three worst records each hold a 14% chance of receiving the top pick.

Note: the rule change in 2019 reduced the odds of a team selecting 1st overall from 25% to 14%. Currently, teams seeded 1-3 each have a 14% chance of earning the top selection, while the 4th seed sits at 12.5%, the 5th seed at 10.5%, the 6th seed at 9.0%, the 7th seed at 7.5%, and the 8th seed at 6.0%.

In the NFL, there are 18 teams that do not qualify for the playoffs each year, but let’s still use the top-eight, since that is often a safe zone for securing blue-chip talent. At the very at least, the 1st-8th picks are a zone that teams in the NFL should expect to have to trade up into for a premier QB or an elite talent.

Furthermore, not every draft class has franchise altering players that go in the top 5 — take a look at 2017, where the elite quarterbacks went late, and instead a running back, an average defender and receiver went before them.

In 2023, for example, the Bears would have had the most balls, with 40. Here’s how a lottery system might look. Out of the 100 balls, here are how many each team in the top 8 would have:

Chicago: 40

Houston: 30

Arizona: 15

Indianapolis: 5

Seattle: 4

Detroit: 2

Las Vegas: 2

Atlanta: 1

The Seattle Seahawks, in 2023, for instance, would have made a fascinating case for a lottery win. If they were to have received the first, or even second pick, how would they have approached the draft? A player like Anthony Richardson or CJ Stroud could have shaped this franchise, who is committed to Geno Smith for just a short time but could have capitalized on a little bit of luck to land their future quarterback without having to surrender any capital.

It should not be overlooked that the Texans concluded their 2022 season by going for a 2-point conversion in the final minute of their season-finale to upend the Indianapolis Colts, and effectively surrender the 1st overall pick in the process. Doing so also put the Colts in a better position to draft a quarterback in the upcoming class – a position that the two rivals both held as a need. Looking back on this single decision could be a fascinating case-study in the future, given that the 2023 draft was headlined by a trade involving that 1st overall pick, and not to mention both the Texans and Colts selecting quarterbacks early in the draft.

In 2020, with Joe Burrow being the consensus top overall prospect, there were a handful of teams in the top-8 that could have justified selecting him, even with their current QBs in place. Carolina, for instance, was rolling into the season with Teddy Bridgewater, in a move that was made to pair the high floor of their team with consistency at quarterback; seeing what he did as a rookie, it is not hard to imagine that Joe Burrow would have instantly turned the Panthers into a playoff team. If the odds of a 7th-worst team landing a top pick appear highly unlikely, it happened in 2019 in the NBA with the New Orleans Pelicans. They landed what was considered to be a similarly transcendent talent, to its respective sport, in Zion Williamson.

Take the 2015 draft for example, a year in which the Tampa Bay Buccaneers famously squandered a lead late in their final game in 2014 in order to secure the #1 pick in the following year’s draft. Doing so ensured they had their pick of the two top quarterbacks, and in doing so contributed more controversy to the discussion of implementing a lottery system for the league. The Bucs drafted Jameis Winston #1 overall in 2015.

In that class, teams like the Jaguars, Jets and Raiders were coming off seasons where they were breaking in new quarterbacks, and likely wouldn’t have taken one if they had received the top pick; more likely, they would have traded out. The Bears were the only team that could have potentially changed the direction of their franchise with a blue-chip prospect like Winston or Marcus Mariota, given the talent they had on the roster, and a QB in Jay Cutler who threw a career-high 18 interceptions the previous year.

The team most likely to have benefited would have of course been the Titans, who owned the second worst record. Furthermore, from 2021-2023, in the NBA, the team with the second-worst record landed the top pick consecutively. 

One more, for intrigue, would have been the 2021 class, where quarterbacks dominated, and teams within the top-5 had a high priority for the position. The Atlanta Falcons, for instance, with the 4th-worst record in 2020, would have seemingly had an easy selection, with Trevor Lawerence headlining that draft class, even if they were committed to Matt Ryan. The Falcons were also undergoing a coaching change that offseason, and could have seen the pick as an opportunity to hit the reset button.

If a team like the Bengals or Dolphins would have landed the pick in the 2021 draft, would a team like Carolina have moved up for Lawerence? Denver? Chicago?

Teams like the 49ers and Jets were pining for a quarterback that year, as well, and it is not too farfetched to think that they would have taken Lawerence #1—seeing the initial return on each of the aforementioned team’s respective picks in that first-round only adds to the intrigue to the discussion. The trajectory of each team would have likely been wildly different if Lawerence were their quarterback.

In the end, it is all speculation. But with the reality of a season-ending scenario playing out like it did in 2014 and 2022, there deserves to be at least some conversation about changing the system in the NFL to a lottery for its draft.