After picking all 272 games on the upcoming NFL schedule, and breaking down stats and trends from last season, I have come up with a projected playoff bracket for this 2023 season, as well as projected records for each team. Following the team-by-team analysis, find a full playoff bracket with a projected Super Bowl winner.

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills (11-6) **

In what feels like a monumental year for Buffalo, given last year’s pre-season hype and their subsequent collapse in the postseason, the Bills are yet again a popular favorite to win an AFC title. The quality of depth, and diversity of skillsets they deploy gives Buffalo one of the stronger units in the league. In the draft, the Bills decided to adopt some of what Kansas City has done, and beef up the tight end position with a potential difference maker—Dalton Kincaid gives Josh Allen a version of what Travis Kelce is for Patrick Mahomes. Factor in Allen’s threat as a runner, plus the diversity of the offense, and Buffalo should continue to roll under Ken Dorsey. They will need a true threat to emerge at running back, as Allen finished more Etna half of their games in 2022 as the team’s leading rusher. For the defense, the health of the secondary will go a long way in determining the future of this team. 

Both Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde missed time in 2022, and their absences were felt. On the other hand, the players that stepped up in their places give the Bills depth at a position group that was still respectable against the pass last season. With the depth and caliber of player that the Bills have up front, the pressure will also be on the young cornerbacks and linebackers to help keep things right in Buffalo. Ultimately, no matter how the season shakes out, the Bills are yet again poised to find themselves playing into January—this year, it will get them further than in previous years. 

Miami Dolphins (10-7) *

Easily one of the most enticing teams in the league—and most difficult to project—the Dolphins possess talent at all levels, plus an ace of a head coach and highly esteemed defensive coordinator. In what feels like years in the making, the pieces are there for Miami to make the push and contend deep into the playoffs—but, much of their success will be predicated on how healthy Tua Tagovailoa is throughout the season. A healthy Tagovailoa means that Miami has a shot at replicating the success of 2022, when their high octane offense was forcing teams into shootouts. Without Tagovailoa under center, the ceiling on this team is significantly lower—while Mike White offers upside as a backup, he’s not likely to carry this team to their highest potential, which is a Super Bowl birth. The Dolphins were diligent in adding depth along the offensive line, at receiver, and also at running back, while on defense the team boasts consider depth at important positions, as well. 

Last season, Miami was not especially efficient when it came to forcing turnovers, and the Dolphins also ranked in the bottom third of the league for points allowed. Landing Cam Smith in the draft makes a strong fit for both sides, while the trade for Jalen Ramsey cannot be underestimated. All together, this defense has the makings to be an elite unit, especially with Vic Fangio running the show—anything short of a top-five finish should be considered a disappointment. Even with a decidedly difficult schedule, the Dolphins stand out as a team that could be serious contenders come January—the fate of this team will essentially come down to the availability of Tua Tagovailoa. 

New England Patriots (8-9)

Much like their division rivals in Miami, the Patriots are banking on a newly hired coordinator to improve a unit that faltered last season in compared to its counterpart. In 2022, the Patriots fielded one of the league’s top defenses, but looked absolutely inept at times on offense. From the offensive line, to the quarterback and receivers, New England looked out of sync in a lot of games last year. Bringing in Bill O’Brien to reunite with Mac Jones, from their days at Alabama, will raise the floor of this offense—even if there are still questions about the future of Jones with the team. New England’s depth at the receiver position does not inspire a ton of confidence, but newly signed Mike Gesicki should help diversify the offense, while JuJu Smith-Schuster is poised to provide Jones with a reliable receiver who can separate and move the chains. 

In the 2023 draft, New England landed two potential studs in Christian Gonzalez and Keion White—with a strong supporting cast around him, and an intriguing set of physical tools and position versatility, White has a chance to become a true impact player for this team in the coming years. Once again, the defense will be the strength of this Patriots squad, and should carry them in tight moments—but the team’s success will ultimately come down to how Mac Jones fares in pressure situations, especially when there is a game on the line. At the end of the day, the strength of the division, plus the toughness of their schedule makes envisioning a postseason run seem rather improbable for New England.

New York Jets (11-6) *

By dropping a future Hall of Fame quarterback into the lineup, the Jets have hopped into the conversation for Super Bowl contenders. After fielding one of the league’s top defenses in 2022, the high expectations are warranted, especially if Aaron Rodgers can channel some of the ‘prove it’ energy that helped him claim two of his most recent MVP awards while playing for Green Bay. The ceiling for this offense—and the team, rather—has yet to be seen, but having a handful of premier, skill-position players, plus Aaron Rodgers running a familiar offense, bodes well for the likelihood that we see it be reached. While solid at running back, New York doesn’t posses a ton of inspiring talent at receiver, outside of Garrett Wilson, so this will be a unit to watch if injuries do strike; Wilson is due for a monster season. 

Last season the Jets went 2-8 in their last ten games, largely in part because the offense fell apart. Throughout the year they did beat a handful of good teams, while the majority of their losses came against playoff teams. With DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner, the Jets have a chance to field the league’s top cornerback tandem, and both should benefit from a strong, deep pass rush; Jermaine Johnson is also due for a breakout season. Considering the top-end talent they have at various positions on the defense, plus the benefit of mostly quality depth, there’s a strong likelihood that the Jets turn in a top-3 defensive performance in terms of points allowed. The pieces are there for the Jets to win the AFC East, and advance in the playoffs—but, much like last year, it will come down to the quarterback play. 

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens (10-7)

If there was a year for the Ravens to put it all together, it feels like 2023 would be that year. Not only did the organization manage to re-sign their star quarterback, but the leader of their defense is also entering his second season with the team, and both should have instrumental roles in determining the trajectory of this team. While the secondary is not as deep as it has been in recent years, Baltimore still fields what will be one of the league’s top safety tandems—plus an elite cornerback in Marlon Humphrey. The aforementioned leader of the defense, Roquan Smith, is due for a career season in Baltimore, and it should be noted how much the Ravens defense improved upon the trade for him last October. An encouraging notion to the Ravens returning Lamar Jackson is that under his guidance in 2022, the team went 7-4, and those four losses came from a combined 12 points. Assuming Jackson stays healthy, the ceiling for this team is as high as it has been perhaps in his entire tenure with the team—a return to his 2019 MVP form is entirely plausible. In 11 of the Ravens 18 games, a tight end was their leading receiver—that should also change with a new offensive scheme under Todd Monken, even though he did deploy a handful of tight ends while coaching at Georgia in 2022.

Between the tough defense that the Ravens are projected to field, the upgrades they made on offense and their new coordinator, the potential for this Baltimore squad is as high as it has been in recent years. The only thing stopping them: the rest of the AFC North.

Cincinnati Bengals (12-5) **

No longer the new kid on the block, Cincinnati comes into the 2023 season with loads of confidence after consecutive AFC Championship appearances. The defense might look a little different, but Lou Anarumo is as good as any coordinator in the league at playing to the strength of his players and finding different ways to diversify the defense and create confusion for opposing quarterbacks. Former first-round pick Dax Hill is set up to have a strong second season, while DJ Turner at corner and Jordan Battle at safety give this defense insurance as high upside rookies. Adding Myles Murphy should help keep other edge rushers fresh and allow this defense to improve in the sack category. With the track record of Anarumo, there shouldn’t be a considerable drop off for this defense.

On the other side of the ball, Brian Callahan and Zac Taylor have shown the propensity to also change things up and diversify the offense in order to get the maximum results, even during the middle of the season. Offensively, Cincinnati will again be potent, with newly signed Irv Smith being an intriguing piece at tight end—the addition of Orlando Brown was a big boon, and the offensive line, which was once a point of weakness, is now one of the best in the league. While the rest of the division has improved on paper, Cincinnati is still in the driver’s seat for the AFC North, and even with tough matchups against contenders like Buffalo, Kansas City and San Francisco, the Bengals are a legitimate threat to once again appear in the conference title game.

Cleveland Browns (9-8)

A popular team to dislike in 2022, Cleveland enters this season with a different narrative in the media—this Browns roster is good. With solid additions on defense, and at receiver, this sort of optimism is justified. Last season was widely considered to be something of a throwaway, given the suspension that Deshaun Watson was serving and the presumed acclimation period it would take for him to get up to speed with the team—but few expected Jacoby Brissett to fill in as admirably as he did during Watson’s absence. On paper, the starting 11 on defense can be considered to be among the league’s best—the secondary and defensive line, especially, are points of strength. The same goes for the offensive line, and with Nick Chubb at running back, the identity of this team will be centered around controlling the clock and grinding down opponents. If Watson can rebound from an underwhelming six-game debut in Cleveland, the ceiling for this team is raised immensely—much of this will come down to how well the coaching staff can tailor their schemes around his skillset, and not overextend themselves. With Elijah Moore complimenting Amari Cooper at receiver, plus David Njoku (who is coming off one of his best seasons as a pro), the weapons are there for Watson to flourish. 

Ultimately, the success of this team will come down to how healthy they can stay—injuries largely derailed the team last season, especially on defense—and also how well Watson acclimates to Kevin Stefanski’s system in his second year. The defense is in position to be a top-ten unit with Jim Schwartz in charge—their ability to sack and pressure the quarterback is especially bound to improve upon last season, when they were among the leagues worst in both categories. The signing of Za’Darius Smith will go one of two ways; if the Browns can get a full season from Smith, they have a chance to possess one of the top pass rushing tandems in the league. If Smith struggles with injuries, the pressure will be on Myles Garrett to carry the load. With how competitive the rest of the division, and the conference is, the climb to the conference title game is steep—but Cleveland is as well positioned as just about any other team in the AFC to make that push.

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6) *

With the upgrades to the offensive line, and signs of promise that Kenny Pickett showed at the end of last season, the Steelers’ chances for competing for a division title appear strong. Even if Allen Robinson doesn’t pan out to be the type X receiver that the Steelers are hoping, they still have a plethora of interesting pieces at receiver and tight end—perhaps none more intriguing than George Pickens, who broke out as a rookie in 2022. Assuming the offensive line additions help Najee Harris improve his bleak (3.9) average yards per carry, the ceiling for this offense should be raised considerably—it also helps that Pickett is strong as a runner. Also worth noting is that in 13 games last season, Pickett led four game-winning drives. Additionally, Pickett’s average air yards traveled per completion (5.4, per Pro Football Reference) should also be something that will increase in year-two in the offense. 

While much focus will be on the offense, and how they improve, the strength of this team will be on the defense. Between the proven veterans, and recent draft picks, the front seven for Pittsburgh is deep, and talented. A bolstered secondary will go a long way in determining the trajectory of this defense, and both Joey Porter Jr. and Patrick Peterson are going to be instrumental in their success—there are also versatile pieces at safety, which should help diversify the looks that the Steelers will give opposing quarterbacks. Worth noting is that the Steelers led the NFL in interceptions last season, with 20. Ultimately, the ceiling of this team will be dictated by the growth of Pickett, and how quickly the new pieces in the secondary acclimate. It’s a tough road to the playoffs in the AFC North, but nothing stands out to say that the Steelers cannot contend for a division title in 2023.

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans (4-13)

In what has felt like a lengthy tear down, the Texans are finally starting to build their team with a few studs and savvy veteran signings in free agency. While the move to trade up in the 2023 draft to land Will Anderson, after selecting their quarterback of the future, can and will be debated, it is clear that the organization is focused on finding core players that will shape the future of this team. Surrounding rookie CJ Stroud with weapons, and an improved offensive line, will go a long way in raising the floor of what this Texans offense can be—between the emergence of Dameon Pierce at running back, and the trade for Shaq Mason at guard, there is a lot more to like about this unit. One X-factor for this team will be the hiring of Bobby Slowik as offensive coordinator—his time in San Francisco was marked by getting high production out of players like George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, so look for the Texans to find creative ways to feed some of their top skill players. 

Defensively, there is an intriguing mix of proven veteran players and young, premier talent. Players like Jalen Pitre, Christian Harris and Derek Stingley are primed to make another step forward, while Jimmy Ward provides experienced, smart play on the back end and should serve as a leader of this defense. Last year’s draft class is littered with potential cornerstone pieces, and the 2022 class for Houston could be looked as instrumental in orchestrating a turn around. In 2023, there are enough winnable matchups on the schedule to see Houston improving their win total by a handful of games, and while stealing a division title from Jacksonville seems unlikely, this Texans team should look be looking strong by the end of the season.

Indianapolis Colts (5-12)

Though the excitement around rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson has energized this organization, there were many points during his college career at Florida where he simply relied on his athleticism too often, and did not develop fully as a passer. The ceiling is absolutely high for Richardson, but, given the history that new head coach Shane Steichen has with mobile, athletic quarterbacks, and how raw Richardson will be—entering the NFL with just 13 career college starts—there is reason to believe that the Colts will be relying heavily on his running ability early during their season, and perhaps hold a similar fate as the 2022 Chicago Bears. Ultimately, the potential for a potent passing attack is seemingly low—though, the pieces are there on offense for this Colts team to be a force as far as it goes for running the football, like they were in 2021 when they ranked among the league’s best. The offensive line needs to return to its 2021 form—and stay healthy—while players like Alec Pierce and Jelani Woods need to take big steps forward in their second seasons if this passing attack is to evolve. Much like the offensive line, Indianapolis’ defense must return to its 2021 form, when they were a top-10 scoring defense, if this team is to truly content for a playoff spot. 

On paper, this defense has some upper-tier talent—especially along the defensive line, with guys like DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye leading the way—but this is a big year for Gus Bradley as coordinator. There are more questions than answers in the secondary, though this team did rank in the top third of the NFL in terms of pass yards allowed last season. This Colts team is far from a finished product, but they still posses the talent to win a seemingly wide open AFC South—their success, of course, comes down to how quickly Richardson develops and is able to become a threat as both a runner and a passer.

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7) **

A streaky Jacksonville squad won the AFC South in the closing weeks of the 2022 season, having started 3-7 before their bye in week 11. Worth noting is that the Jags did so by beating only a handful of playoff teams along the way—the schedule this season is less forgiving in 2023. Their big wins last year were big wins, so there is an encouraging notion to the team playing up or down to their opponents potential. While Calvin Ridley is receiving attention for the potential impact he adds to this offense, Travis Etienne is again going to be an X-factor for the Jaguars—he’s excellent in space and was depended on heavily in close games. Rookie Tank Bigsby gives this offense another dynamic weapon in the red zone—if the line can stay healthy, this offense can take the next step toward becoming elite in 2023.

While this Jacksonville team did show signs of improvement during their win streak to close the season, there are spots on the depth chart that could become liabilities if injuries strike—mainly, the secondary. Much has been put into upping the talent along the front seven, and this season their playmakers need to be more consistent, especially Travon Walker, who flashed at moments last year but displayed growing pains as a rookie. Considering there is blue-chip talent all throughout this roster, and that the team plays in one of the softer divisions in football, the Jaguars have everything it takes to take the next step to becoming a true contender in the AFC. There is a world, however, in which the team regresses, especially if injuries strike and the rest of the division makes strides in a quicker fashion than is expected. 

Tennessee Titans (7-10)

While a few of the marquee names are still left on this roster, it’s hard not to feel like there is a rebuild going on in Tennessee. Between the departures along the offensive and defensive line, plus the recent draft classes for the Titans that have included a litany of early-round picks on offense, the shift in identity has been slowly taking place—it’s all but expected that Ryan Tannehill, and perhaps even Derek Henry, will not be with the club in 2024. Given the state of the division, though, it’s reasonable to think that the Titans expect they can still contend for a title with their current stars, despite having less depth at key positions than normal. A big year from second-year players Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo would help buoy this offense, as the Titans showed last season that they can’t rely entirely upon Henry to carry the load. 

This team is also coming off a season in which they were 7-3 after week 11, only to drop seven games in a row and let the division slip through their fingers. If things start to sputter early—the first eight games on their schedule in 2023 feature a handful of teams with top-10 scoring defenses from 2022—there is a strong possibility that the team rolls out one of their young backup quarterbacks to see what they have at the position. With the AFC North and NFC South on deck, the Titans are going to have a mix of winnable games and also some tough, physical contests. No matter how different the depth chart looks, head coach Mike Vrabel is known for getting the most out of his players—another AFC South title is unlikely, but certainly possible. 

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (8-9)

For a team with as much talent as the Broncos, it is hard to not only fathom how bad last season was, but also to imagine such a catastrophe occurring again in 2023, especially with Sean Payton calling the shots. There were times last season where this Denver team was downright unwatchable, and with Payton in charge, the offense will at least be more efficient in moving the ball. Payton won a lot of games in New Orleans in the later part of his tenure by running the football, and the Broncos invested heavily in not only upgrading the depth on their offensive line, but also adding a powerful back in Samaje Perine. Additionally, this team boasts an abundance of tight ends who can contribute as both receivers and blockers. While the names at receiver come with high pedigree, one name to watch is Marvin Mims, who could fight for playing time and has the potential to add a deep-threat element to this offense. 

Defensively, the blow from losing Ejiro Evero was lessened after bringing back Vance Joseph, who has made a name for himself as being a coordinator that is able to coax turnovers and sacks out of his squads. With the talent that the Broncos have on defense, especially at the second and third level, there’s a good chance they turn in a top-10 performance in terms of scoring and yards allowed against the pass in 2023. Even though the AFC West is loaded, the Broncos could finally have the pieces that are necessary to hang with the best—a wildcard birth is a realistic goal, and anything beyond that should be considered a huge stride forward in what will be a very important year for the Broncos as they decide the future of Wilson, as well as other key pieces. 

Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) **

Dethroning the Chiefs will not come easy for any team in the AFC, but there are a handful of capable teams in the conference that have closed the gap on Kansas City over the years, and this feels like a year that we will see another team representing the conference in the Super Bowl. On the other hand, the Chiefs still field the league’s top quarterbacks, and coaching staffs—as much as talent matters in terms of scoring points on the field, coaching plays a huge part in the outcome of a game, and can be the difference in winning or losing tight games. Between the types of weapons that the Chiefs have on offense—Kadarius Toney could finally break out in his first full season with the team—and the quality of their offensive line, there’s little reason to believe that they will regress to a point of concern. Travis Kelce is coming off a career year, and doesn’t show any signs of slowing down, while Justyn Ross is poised to carve out a big role on this team after a long recovery from injury.

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs possess a solid group of pass rushers that is buoyed by Chris Jones—last season Jones recorded 15.5 sacks, but no other player recorded more than six. The talent at linebacker is a strength, however, with both talent and depth. Having to rely on a handful of rookies for playing time in 2023 will only help boost this team’s potential as far as it goes with making another deep post season run. The argument is still there that the AFC is the Chiefs’ to lose, but with the gap closing in on Kansas City, they need to play their best ball in the post-season if they expect to make another run at the Lombardi trophy.

Las Vegas Raiders (4-13)

For as aggressive as the Raiders were during the 2022 offseason, this roster feels far from being deep enough to be the type of contender that the organization envisioned when they traded for Devante Adams and signed Chandler Jones to a big contract. Add in the fact that new quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was signed knowing that he could effectively never play a snap for the team, due to the injury waiver included in his contract, and this Raiders team is littered with question marks. If Garoppolo does suit up for, say even 12 games in 2023, there is more to be optimistic about, given his experience playing in Josh McDaniels’ offense, and the handful of intriguing weapons around him. Even still, the quality—and depth—of the offensive line leaves much to be desired, and Garoppolo has shown over the years that he plays his best football in a clean pocket with an effective running game, so the offensive line could quickly become an anchor that sinks this team. Whether Garoppolo stays fully healthy or not, it also feels inevitable that Las Vegas gets a strong look at their rookie quarterback, Aidan O’Connel, at some point in the season, especially if things spiral late. O’Connel showed good decision-making and ability to play out of structure while at Purdue, and could end up being a steal.

Given also the amount of holes that appear on the defensive depth chart, and it’s not hard to imagine this Raiders team finishing with one of the leagues’ worst record—the team will need big contributions from rookie Tyree Wilson, as well as Tre’Von Moehrig in the secondary if this unit is going to make signifcant strides. In 2022, the defense especially struggled against the pass, and were vulnerable as it went for allowing points—ultimately, even for as high of a ceiling as Wilson has, there hasn’t been much else done to inspire confidence in these metrics improving in 2023. At the end of the day, the AFC West is quite possibly the strongest division in football, and the Raiders have a long way to go in catching up to the Chiefs and Chargers in terms of talent—if this season tanks, at least the Raiders should feel good about landing a top quarterback prospect in the 2024 draft to help jump start this organization.

Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)

A team that is laden with talent, but has proven over the years unable to close out big games, the Chargers make a compelling case for a team that could finally put it all together and make a deep postseason run. With offensive coordinator Kellen Moore dialing up deep shots, plus the talent the Chargers possess at both receiver and quarterback, there’s a good chance that this offense finishes in the top-five in terms of passing and scoring. Adding Quentin Johnston and Derius Davis, both out of TCU, in the draft will help open up this offense, as they each possess traits to become deep threats for Justin Herbert. So long as the line stays healthy, the ceiling for this offense remains high. The Chargers, though, have not lost close games in the past due to a lack of talent—it has come down to coaching and decision making; so, unless this changes for Los Angeles, they could absolutely find themselves again going home after the wildcard round of the playoffs this season. 

Adding Tuli Tuipulotu to a defense that already fields two elite edge defenders, plus the addition of veteran Eric Kendricks gives this front seven a new look that should help them close out close games. Injuries also decimated this roster last season, so the health and longevity of their star players will go a long way in determining the ceiling of this team. Everything is there for the Chargers to go toe-to-toe with the NFL’s elite, week in and week out, but this season will ultimately come down to how head coach Brandon Staley handles his in-game management during crucial moments—if Staley doesn’t improve in this aspect as a coach, nothing should preclude the organization from looking elsewhere in 2024 for a head coach.

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys (9-8)

With Kellen Moore having left for the same job with the LA Chargers, all eyes will be on what this offense looks like with Mike McCarthy in control. Providing Dak Prescott with better weapons at receiver should help this team be better at stretching the field, an area in which they struggled last year, and also cut down on the amount of interceptions that were thrown last season (15). The offensive line possesses one of the higher ceilings in the league, and their availability should go a long way in determining this team’s success. It is expected that the Cowboys will lean more on a balanced attack, with an emphasis on the run, but with all the change on offense, it will come down to how quickly things mesh if Dallas is going to continue its run as one of the league’s top scoring units. Furthermore, can Tony Pollard handle the load as their bell cow back? Rookie Deuce Vaughn gives this team a potentially dynamic weapon out of the backfield, and should help boost this passing offense with his quick feet and elusiveness. 

The defense remains mostly intact from last season, while a few strong additions were made to help improve their ability to stop the run. Dallas possesses quality depth at most positions on defense, especially along the line and in the secondary—a unit to watch this season is linebacker, which has received an infusion of talent over the years and could finally hit its stride. Ultimately this defense has grown from being boom-or-bust to becoming a unit of strength for this team, and should build off last season when they were among the league’s best at forcing interceptions and sacks. At the end of the day, with Ezekiel Elliot still unsigned, the lack of a goal-line back in Dallas is one cause for concern with this Cowboys team, plus the overall strength of the teams in their division. While a dramatic drop-off is unlikely in Dallas, there is a chance that this squad regresses as it figures out ways to remain multiple and dangerous on offense—in the playoffs, this could become a detriment. 

Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) **

Coming off a remarkable season in which they set the NFL record for most team sacks in a season, this Eagles team is faced with the pressure of not only repeating their success, but also doing it without their two coordinators from last season. Given their history and track record with replenishing talent through the draft, free agent signings, and savvy trades, the Eagles are not expected to significantly regress, despite their personnel changes. On the other hand, their depth at positions like tight end, offensive line and receiver are not quite as strong as they were last season, and they also received tremendous luck in terms of their team health in 2022—if injuries strike, this team will not look like the machine that it was last year. Jalen Hurts is poised to build off a career year in 2022, while the additions at running back should keep this offense humming and keep defenses on their toes. 

A few players to watch on defense will be the Eagles’ recent draft picks, especially those from the University of Georgia—between Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Nakobe Dean, Nolan Smith and Kelee Ringo, Philadelphia is banking on the chemistry and pedigree from these players’ college success to help carry them as a smothering defense. Dean and Davis are likely to see the most action, though Smith is set up to contribute at least a handful of sacks as an edge defender. Another young defender to watch is Sydney Brown, who has a strong chance of usurping the starting safety spot before the year is over. If things click early, this Philadelphia defense is poised to continue their dominance—relying on a handful of new faces, plus a new coordinator, however, does offer some pause for predicting the Eagles to be at the top of the league on defense. History doesn’t favor the Eagles repeating their 2022 success—especially with tilts against Kansas City, Buffalo and San Francisco on deck—but the state of the NFC leaves this team as the clear-cut number-one squad in the conference heading into this season, meaning their chances of a playoff run remain high.

New York Giants (9-8) *

Coming off a surprise playoff run in 2022, the Giants are poised to look even more improved in year-two under Brian Daboll. Last season the Giants ranked last in explosive plays, so after adding guys like Darren Waller, Jalin Hyatt and Isaiah Hodgins, this offense will improve in that measure. With the diversity in skill set that these players offer, plus the strength that the Giants have along the offensive line, there’s a chance we also see a big step forward from Daniel Jones as a passer, who is coming off a season where he recorded his lowest completed air yards per attempt (per pro football reference). Getting the most out of Jones again will help continue to move the needle and keep this team competitive in every game on their schedule—games against teams like Miami and Buffalo might stress the capabilities of this offense, but otherwise the Giants field a manageable schedule in terms of matchups and how their team has been built. 

Along the defensive front, New York is seeing its investments pay off with encouraging signs from guys like Dexter Lawerence and Kayvon Thibodeaux. Their young group of pass rushers should be a foundational piece for this team moving forward, while the secondary is headlined by Xavier McKinney and Adoree Jackson. With Jackson coming off one of his best seasons as a pro, and the addition of rookie Deonte Banks, defensive coordinator Wink Martingale is set up to find even more ways of getting after the quarterback. Last season the Giants blitzed the highest percentage of any team in the league, and in the process jumped from being the third worst team in 2021 for applying pressure against opposing quarterbacks to being in the top six in 2022—look for that figure to rise again this season. Between the intriguing, young pieces on defense, plus the growth that Daniel Jones showed in 2022, the floor of this Giants team seems to be continually rising. There is bound to be regression in the division elsewhere, which leaves New York in a good position to make another playoff appearance this season.

Washington Commanders (8-9)

This season will go as far as Sam Howell, or Jacoby Brissett, can take this offense. After years of investing in the defense, meanwhile assembling a stable of young, talented pass catchers on offense, Washington is in a position to be one of the league’s biggest boom-or-bust squads in 2023. Coming out of college, Howell was known for his deep-ball placement and physicality as a runner, both of which figure to be factors in Eric Bienemy’s offense. The trio of Jahan Dotson, Terry McClaurin and Curtis Samuel gives Howell a chance to spread the ball around in different ways, including maximizing deep shot opportunities coming off of what should be an effective play action game. While once a strength of this team, the offensive line has seen significant changes over the past few years, and could become a liability if its depth is tested. 

One thing worth noting is how significant the 2022 draft was for Washington—entering this season, four players from that class are projected to start on offense, while three more are in position to receive meaningful snaps on defense. Both the secondary and defensive line possess talent, and depth, which should bode well for Washington’s chances of improving on what was largely a disappointing year in 2022. With a strong showing from the defense, plus some splash plays from the offense in the passing game, this Washington squad could surprise in 2023.

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears (6-11)

With a haul of draft capital for the future, plus a hefty sum of cash to spend in the next offseason, the Bears organization could take this team one of two ways: either invest in Justin Fields, or move on and take a chance on one of the up-and-coming draft prospects in the 2024 class. For the latter to come true, Fields will either have to: not play a full season, due to injuries; or, not display the type of growth as a passer that the organization expects to see in his third year. Having displayed all sorts of talent as a runner in 2022, and flashes of a deep-ball thrower, Fields is on the brink of becoming the team’s first franchise quarterback in decades. With the tutelage of Luke Getsy, and an infusion of young, intriguing talent at the skill positions, Fields is set up to make that next step. One potential point of concern, however, is the offensive line, which is still coming to form after years of substandard play. 

For the defense, Chicago needs to see high production out of their big-ticket free agents in Trumaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards—if rookies Noah Sewell and Tyrique Stevenson can contribute, as well, the floor for this defense looks vastly improved from last season. Signing veteran Yannick Ngakoue should help the Bears improve their run defense, a category in which they ranked at the bottom of the league in both yards allowed and rushing touchdowns allowed. Improving the sack numbers would also go a long way for this team, as they ranked dead last in the NFL last season with 20. If Stevenson can be a key piece to the secondary, the Bears should feel good about the young stable of guys they have on the back end, with Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker being potential cornerstones for the future. If the Bears are going to contend in the NFC North, it starts with the defense. Seeing improvements from Fields in the short game would only bolster their chances of not only being a player in the division, but potentially contending for a playoff spot down the stretch, as well.

Detroit Lions (8-9)

Having ended last season on a 7-2 run, the hype behind the Lions entering the 2023 season is strong. Add in the fact that quarterback Jared Goff posted a 15-0 touchdown to interception ratio during that stretch, and that buzz in Detroit could very well materialize into a playoff birth. The next step for the Lions, of course, is to not only make the playoffs, but also record their first postseason win since 1992. Given how uncertain the respective outlooks are for their divisional foes, 2023 presents a great opportunity for the Lions to break through. Goff has the weapons—especially once week 7 rolls around and Jameson Williams returns from suspension—for this offense to produce at a high clip. Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs gives him a versatile weapon out of the backfield who can create space with his quickness and acceleration. With an elite offensive line, dynamic running game, and interesting set of weapons on offense, surviving the Williams suspension with a .500 record or better should set Detroit up to have a strong season. 

In the early part of the schedule, Detroit will have their front seven tested by teams that will likely be leaning on the run game as they break in new quarterbacks and also deploy run-heavy schemes. Last season the Lions gave up the fourth-most yards on the ground, and are still lacking a dominant player to apply interior pressure. Rookies Jack Campbell and Brian Branch are in a position to play a lot of snaps, and both offer the defense rangy players who can matchup well with receiving backs and tight ends, respectively. With the high-octane offense that Detroit is poised to posses, the defense does not need to be elite—but it does need to improve in a number of categories from 2022, including total yards per game and points allowed. The last four weeks of the season will be tough for Detroit, and even though they enter 2023 with swirling optimism, there’s a chance that this stretch is what keeps them out of the postseason. 

Green Bay Packers (10-7) **

All eyes are on the offense, and how Jordan Love performs as the starting quarterback after sitting on the bench for three seasons. With a young nucleus of pass catchers around him, nearly all of which were drafted in the first four rounds over the last two years, a deep offensive line, and dynamic run game, Love has the tools to succeed early on in Green Bay, even if there are bound to be some growing pains early. This offense will likely lean on Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, plus guys like Christian Watson and Keisean Nixon for jet sweeps, which should help open up the play action game and show the capabilities of Matt Lafleur’s offense. Romeo Doubbs flashed at times last season, while the rookie tight ends are also bound to contribute in big ways, especially as the season progresses. If Love gets comfortable and limits his mistakes, this offense has the potential to be dangerous down the stretch.

Last season, however, the defense gave up 29 red zone touchdowns, so they need to improve in that area. Green Bay will again lean on their veterans—Preston Smith led the team in pressures, and sacks, while Rashan Gary was impactful during the nine games he played, and the defense was move effective when Gary was on the field. Drafting Lukas Van Ness gives this defense another explosive pass rusher off the edge, and Van Ness is set up to record at least a handful of sacks as a rookie. The interior of the defense will be a focal point, as they have struggled against the run in years past—second year player Devonte Wyatt is a player who could have a big impact, and he came on strong to finish the 2022 season. If Wyatt makes a step, and the secondary can churn out turnovers, there’s a high ceiling for not only this Packers defense, but the team in general.

Minnesota Vikings (9-8) *

Coming off a season in which they made history by winning all 11 of their one-score games, with five of those wins being decided by a field goal, the Vikings are bound for regression, especially considering their point-differential total was at a minus figure in 2022. While the defense was at times a liability for the team, giving up the second-most yards per game, and the fifth-most points per game, the hiring of Brian Flores instantly raises the floor of what this defense should be in 2023. Add in the resigning of Danielle Hunter, plus the signings of veterans such as Byron Murphy and Marcus Davenport, and this Vikings defense is set up to improve in a number of categories. There are still questions about the unit, mainly at the interior of the defensive line and quality of depth in the secondary, but Flores has made a name for himself in this league by deploying diverse looks from the secondary and getting quality play out of those players. If the Flores hire leads to immediate results from the defense, this team has a good chance of making another run at the playoffs.

On offense, the Vikings drafted Jordan Addison to help replace the production from Adam Theilen, and throughout camp Addison has drawn rave reviews from his quarterback, Kirk Cousins, for being polished as a route runner. Cousins enters an interesting point in his Vikings tenure, as the team is in a position to move on from him after his contract expires at the end of the 2023 season—but on the other hand, Cousins helped orchestrate a lethal passing attack that only improved after the team traded for TJ Hockenson. Factor in the presence of Addison, and the dominant Justin Jefferson, and this offense could pick up right where it left off, thus creating a difficult decision for the Vikings come spring. One thing working against this notion, however, is the fact that Cousins, especially with a strong season, could command a huge contract that the Vikings might be unwilling to pay. A hindering factor for both the success of Cousins, and the offense as a whole, will be the offensive line—down the stretch in 2022, when injuries struck the interior of the line, this team began to spiral. At the end of the day, the Vikings have earned the right to be a favorite to win the division heading into 2023, but there is nothing to say that the regression they are poised to experience could lead to struggles on defense, and effectively leave them on the outside looking in, come January. 

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons (9-8)

Behind a solid offensive line, the Falcons produced the league’s third-best rushing offense. The addition of Bijan Robinson immediately raises the ceiling on where this offense can rank in 2023 in terms of rushing—add in the fact that both Jonnu Smith and Mack Hollins are proficient run blockers, and there’s a world in which the Falcons become the league’s top rushing attack. The run game will be a big emphasis for this team, considering they’re breaking in a quarterback in Desmond Ridder who only started four games as a rookie last year—two of those starts were wins, albeit against strugglinArizona and Tampa Bay. It has been since week 9 in 2021 that the Falcons have seen their quarterback throw for more than 300 yards, and while Ridder is not known for having an elite arm, he did display some good traits as a quarterback who plays safe football and is solid as a decision maker, which means this offense has the potential to be above average under his reign. 

Free agent additions were made all over the defense—perhaps none bigger than Jessie Bates at safety, who is expected to be the anchor of the defense and help the team improve from a defense that ranked in the bottom ten for most categories. Calais Campbell was brought in to be a running mate to Grady Jarrett, and if Bud Dupree can return to his old form, when he was recording double digit sacks in Pittsburgh, this team could have a nice rotation of pass rushers. Improvements could still be made to the linebacker unit, but the team has added depth to the secondary and defensive line with a few savvy signings and intriguing draft picks—all in all, this defense is bound to improve, and could help the Falcons play their way into the playoffs. It just comes down to how well Ridder can play in his first full season as a starter. 

Carolina Panthers (6-11)

Teams that pick number 1 overall in the draft are not often coming off a season in which they were in a fringe playoff team late in the season—Carolina is just that, heading into 2023. With a new coaching staff, including an excellent defensive coordinator in Ejiro Evero, the Panthers possess one of the more enticing floor/ceiling combinations in the league. The organization is building around Bryce Young, and while that has a chance to hit big for them, there are legitimate concerns about his frame, and what that means for the longevity of his career—as long as he stays healthy, Young gives this team immediately playoff consideration. While the weapons surrounding Young could be better, there are guys like Jonathan Mingo and Miles Sanders who could add some explosiveness to this offense. Outside of Mingo, veterans Laviska Shenault and Terrace Marshall Jr. need to step up, especially if the injury concerns for both DJ Chark and Adam Thielen materialize. Considering the offensive line played some of their best football down the stretch last season, there’s reasons to believe this Panthers offense can be competent, and potentially help the team make a playoff push.

With Evero calling the defense, there is serious potential for guys like Brian Burns, Jeremy Chinn and Jaycee Horn to put in their best seasons as pros. Evero has coaxed excellent play out of his secondary over the years, which means both Horn and Vonn Bell have the potential to flourish this season. On the other hand, Donte Jackson had a down season in 2022 and needs to rebound in a big way, as does CJ Henderson. With decent depth around the defense, and one of the league’s top coordinators, the Panthers are due to improve in a number of metrics. One encouraging notion is that last year Carolina played some of their best football from week 14 on—by grinding teams down with their run game and playing tough defense—once they received better play from their quarterback; assuming head coach Frank Reich gets average to above-average play out of Young and the offense, this team has a chance to get hot late and make a run into the playoffs. 

New Orleans Saints (12-5) **

For a team that possesses a top-tier defense, a handful of talented skill players, and a sturdy offensive line (when healthy), the Saints instantly become favorites to win the division after adding Derek Carr at quarterback—anyone watching the team recently would say that QB play was one of the reasons the team has failed to reach the playoffs the last two years. Helping the Saints’ case to make a playoff push is the fact that every other team in the division is breaking in a new quarterback as their full-time starter in 2023—if Carr, who has 33 game-winning drives throughout his career, can play relatively clean football, and not plague the Saints with poor-decision making, this team has legitimate odds of making good on the hype and winning the division. Only three times has Carr thrown less than ten interceptions in a season, and 2022 was something of a down year for him, which means there is no guarantee that things click for him in New Orleans.

The defense is, and should remain, a strength for this team—New Orleans recognizes that Cam Jordan could be entering the twilight of his career, which is why the draft picks of Bryan Breese and Isaiah Foskey make sense, and both rookies have a chance to make an impact on this team in the coming years. Few teams possess the type of players that the Saints do in the secondary, which should be their strongest unit on defense—there is depth to this group, and they make a case for having the top safety duo in the league. Unlike last year, though, the defense cannot carry this team, and there will be points in which the offense needs to win the game when it’s on the line—Carr has proven capable of doing this, but has been on something of a regression over the last few years. There are no guarantees that a big-ticket free agent quarterback will solve a team’s offensive woes, but New Orleans has seen it happen in this division recently—and with the South effectively wide open, plus a manageable schedule, the Saints have the best odds of winning the division. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-13)

Much like the Rams and Cardinals, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ostensibly enter 2023 with a quiet eye on the future—mainly, the 2024 NFL Draft. While a number of key players who contributed to their Super Bowl LV victory are still on the roster, this team lacks the depth that it has fielded in recent years—plus they must replace Tom Brady at quarterback. By opting to sign Baker Mayfield to compete with Kyle Track for the starting job, the Buccaneers all but indicated that they are willing to take a step backwards this season if it means potentially taking a large step forward in the near future—Mayfield is the presumed favorite, and could will this team to victory more than once this season. However, with the state of the roster being as it is, there’s reasons to believe that Tampa Bay will be looking for a few new starters at wide receiver, tight end and potentially running back in 2024—and that’s just on offense. The offensive line requires an infusion of depth, and talent, which doesn’t bode well for the Bucs and their chances of winning the NFC South for a third straight season. 

While the offense needs work, the defense in Tampa Bay should at least keep this team competitive—they retained guys like Lavonte David and Jamel Dean, and still possess one of the league’s top tackles in Vita Vea—they could, however, potentially see both David and Devin White depart following this season. Add in the fact that they can get out of both Carlton Davis’  and Shaquil Barrett’s contracts after this year, and that defense could look drastically different come 2024. There are young, promising players in the front seven, like Logan Hall and Joe Tyron-Shoyinka, as well as rookie Calijah Kancey, but this team is banking on their youth showing enough promise to potentially keep some of their veterans around in 2024 and beyond. Considering how close this team is to a full rebuild, the likelihood of a resurgent season happening appears slim—Mike Evans, also, is a name to watch, as he enters a contract year in 2023. Ultimately, this organization is likely operating with the understanding that the rest of the division is undergoing an overhaul, and sees 2023 as either one last hurrah, or a chance to be bad enough to land a high draft pick in what should be a loaded 2024 class—given how tough their schedule is, the latter appears to be the most likely. 

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals (3-14)

Heading into this season, the Cardinals are in an unfamiliar position, and are easily one of the most intriguing teams to watch in 2023, even if that means they will be hard to watch at times this season. With Monti Ossenfort as the new general manager, this organization has taken a new approach when it comes to team building, and that was evident in the 2023 draft when they moved around the board to acquire both a player they coveted, Paris Johnson, and also future capital. The future capital may very well indicate another shift for the organization, as they are potentially putting themselves in contention to pick a top prospect like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye if they do not feel Kyler Murray is their quarterback of the future. How much Murray plays, and how well he plays in 2023, will absolutely factor into those future decisions. As it stands, the Cardinals will trot out veteran Colt McCoy at quarterback and hope that he can keep the team competitive as they sort out other positions of need. Michael Wilson should be a bright spot for this offense, though, and there’s a good chance we see Trey McBride break out, as well.

Having brought in Jonathan Gannon as head coach, there should be some optimism behind what this defense can do—a defense that ranked second worst in 2023 in terms of points allowed, no less. On the other hand, there are still a few talented pieces to work with on defense, and players like Budda Baker and Isaiah Simmons should at least be holdovers during what is expected to be a substantial teardown in the desert. Considering the state of the roster, and the health of Murray, there is reason to believe this team could finish with the worst record in the league—but, in a season where that means a crack at a potential franchise quarterback in the upcoming draft, that’s not such a bad thing, especially for an organization that is ostensibly working to clean the slate.

Los Angeles Rams (2-15)

After laying all the chips on the table for a Super Bowl title in 2021, the Los Angeles Rams enter this season with a slew of new faces at important positions—especially defense and special teams. Still intact are the pillars of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald, but a dismal showing in 2023 could spell the end of a Rams tenure for at least one of those players, if not more. Stafford, while healthier than he was entering the 2022 season, is going to be working behind an offensive line that faces plenty of questions—Stafford plays his best football with a clean pocket, and so much of this offense relies on timing and rhythm, so a few injuries up front could become a major issue for this offense. Alongside Kupp, the Rams will be rlying a handful of complimentary players, but one name to watch is Puka Nacua, the rookie out of BYU who has flashed consistently at camp. Another rookie on offense to keep an eye on for meaningful snaps is Stetson Bennett (though, don’t count out running back Zach Evans to handle a lot of snaps, especially down the stretch), the former Georgia quarterback who was considered by many to be a fringe draft prospect. Bennett has flashed at camp, and could help keep this team afloat if something were to happen to Stafford, or the team decides to shut him down if things really go south.

With so much youth and inexperience at the position, the linebackers on this team could become their weakest point. While Donald can command double-teams up front, the Rams are banking on their young players to step up and take some pressure off this unit. In the secondary, there are a few seasoned veterans, but also a handful of new faces—moreover, only one cornerback on this roster stands taller than 6 feet tall, which could become a weakness for the defense. Considering the state of the roster, and how the team approached both free agency and the draft, it’s hard not to think that their eye is focused squarely on the future—with a potentially loaded 2024 draft class, especially at quarterback, and the fact that the Rams are a big market team that likes to make big splashes, there’s a strong probability that this season is more about positioning themselves to make big moves in the offseason than it is winning games. 

San Francisco 49ers (12-5) **

The bullies of the West, San Francisco enters 2023 with one of the league’s deepest and most talented rosters, and is led by one of its top coaches. While one could argue that their recent success has diminished their depth—it has—this organization is highly adept at replenishing through both free agency and the draft. For evidence, look no further than players like Drake Jackson (who is poised for a breakout season), Javon Hargrave and Charvarius Ward on defense—last season’s trade for Christian McCaffrey is also evidence that this organization understands the value of adding players with a certain skillset to fit their system. Much can be gleaned about this team and what they’ve been able to do, year in and year out, but perhaps no better example was last season, when they found rookie Brock Purdy to be highly efficient in their offense. The move to sign Sam Darnold, while trying to develop Trey Lance, only underscores what went wrong in 2023: quarterback depth. If something were to happen to Purdy in 2023, Darnold has shown enough in camp and preseason to give this team confidence as they try to return to the Super Bowl—as for Lance, the jury is still out on his prospects as a future starter.

Although this team has to replace Demeco Ryans at defensive coordinator, there is still a ton of talent at all three levels—it should be no surprise if Clelin Ferrell makes a big step forward and becomes a consistent presence on this defensive line. Fred Warner is arguably the league’s best linebacker, and while the secondary has experienced some turnover over the last couple years, the defense as a whole should maintain itself as the strength of this team. If there is to be regression for this defense, it is likely to come in pass coverage, where the 49ers ranked in the middle of the pack last season. Even still, this was the top scoring defense and ranked #1 for yards allowed, as well. The system, like its counterpart on offense, is conducive to success. On deck are games against teams like the Cowboys, Bengals, Chargers, Eagles and Jaguars, so the pass defense will certainly be tested. Even with a likely regression, this unit is still amongst the best in football, and should remain that way. After injuries derailed their 2023 campaign, the 49ers enter 2024 as a Super Bowl favorite, and a team that should be competitive week in and week out.

Seattle Seahawks (11-6) *

After completely bypassing what was expected to be a rebuild, following the 2022 trade that sent Russel Wilson to the Broncos, the Seahawks have found themselves once again in contention, and will be vying for a playoff bid again in 2023. Last season, this team was able to capitalize on a very strong draft class and a career resurgence from Geno Smith. Dave Canales, Seattle’s former passing coordinator and a long-time fixture to this staff, is now in Tampa Bay, which leaves questions about Smith potentially regressing. Moreover, Smith, who was not afraid to put the ball in tight windows and take deep shots, played lights out during the first eight weeks of the 2022 season, but began making more mistakes and saw his interception rate nearly triple after week 9. All in all, the offense should see another step forward after adding rookies Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet to bolster the receiving and running back rooms, respectively. The offensive line is coming together, and features more depth than it has in recent years, which bodes well for the Seahawks’ chances of not experiencing a drop-off. 

With rookie Devon Witherspoon lining up opposite Riq Woolen, plus the addition of Julian Love, this secondary is poised to be much improved after being one of the worst defenses when it came to yards and points allowed in 2023. Last season, they also struggled against the run—adding Dre’Mont Jones and Jarran Reed up front should help in this department, while the linebacker corp has a chance to be considerably better as well. One player to watch will be Jamal Adams—throughout his career, he has been an impact player but has struggled to stay healthy; with the retooled secondary, Adams should be able to thrive off favorable matchups and chalk up a handful of sacks. Given the depth of the secondary, and improvements up front, there’s a chance that this Seattle defense makes considerable strides and helps keep them competitive against teams like Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Even with Arizona and Los Angeles rebuilding, the schedule will not be as easy as it was in 2022—Seattle only beat two playoff teams in 2022, and was heavily outmatched against their rivals in San Francisco. If Smith can continue his resurgence, and the weapons on offense add a new dynamic, Seattle will at least be positioned to make the post season in 2023. 

Playoff Bracket

NFC

1. San Francisco 49ers
2. New Orleans Saints
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Green Bay Packers
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. New York Giants
7. Minnesota Vikings

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
6. New York Jets
7. Miami Dolphins

Wild Card Round: NFC

• Saints over Vikings
• Eagles over Giants
• Seahawks over Packers

Wild Card Round: AFC

• Bengals over Dolphins
• Bills over Jets
• Steelers over Jaguars

Divisional Round: NFC

• 49ers over Seahawks
• Saints over Eagles

Divisional Round: AFC

• Chiefs over Steelers
• Bengals over Bills

Conference Championship: NFC

• 49ers over Saints

Conference Championship: AFC

• Bengals over Chiefs

Super Bowl LVIII:

• Bengals over 49ers