The slate is set for College Football’s Conference Championship weekend. The selection committee will be paying close attention to the games between Alabama and Georgia, Michigan and Iowa, Oregon and Washington, Florida State and Louisville, and Texas and Oklahoma State. The question is: who impresses enough for a playoff bid?
With the Conference Championship games set, playoff implications are on the line. Who wins out?
Starting at the top, Georgia secured its SEC Championship bid by going undefeated in conference play. Alabama, meanwhile, handled the West and will face off against the Bulldogs in a classic SEC showdown.
Alabama Heating Up at Right Time
The Crimson Tide are no stranger to the SEC Championship game, nor are they unfamiliar with their foe: the Georgia Bulldogs. Both teams cruised through their conference schedule with ease, but Alabama appears to be playing their best football and could shake things up with a win.
Alabama’s success has been largely driven by Jalen Milroe and his improved play. Since being benched against South Florida in the middle of September, Milroe has turned things around. Things started to really click for the junior quarterback when he started leaning more on his legs, and creating explosive plays as a runner. Coupled with his running ability, Milroe has continued to make good decisions as a passer, which has kept Alabama rolling. In the month of November alone, Milroe accounted for 15 touchdowns, completed nearly 70% of his passes, and only tossed 1 interception.
Stopping Milroe is the biggest task for the Bulldogs, but if Georgia is to reclaim the SEC title, it starts with forcing Milroe into mistakes. In Alabama’s lone loss of the season, Texas was able to confuse Milroe by throwing different coverages at him; Milroe finished the Texas game with two interceptions and a 51.8% completion percentage. While the Longhorns were aided by Steve Sarkisian’s aggressiveness on fourth-down calls, both of Milroe’s interceptions in that game came when it was still a one-score match.
Through 12 games, Georgia has generated 11 interceptions and forced only four fumbles, so the Bulldogs defense has their work cut out for them against a red-hot Crimson Tide team. Turnovers will be key for Georgia if they’re going to maintain their stronghold on the SEC, and it starts with disrupting Milroe. In Alabama’s massive win over Auburn, Milroe threw a highly improbable game-winning score, and looked cool as a cucumber while doing it. Rattling him is no easy task.
Other key matchups for Georgia in this game will be the use of Brock Bowers. One of the biggest holdovers from the Bulldogs’ title runs is Bowers, who remains college football’s best tight end, and easily one of its most dominant offensive players. Bowers runs like a receiver, and can do just about everything in the passing game. In consecutive weeks, Bowers took over games against Auburn and Kentucky, finishing with a combined 15 catches and nearly 300 yards in the two contests. The same script will likely be needed to topple a disciplined Alabama defense.
Prediction: 24-20 Alabama over Georgia
Florida State and Louisville Collide
This ACC matchup might have been the weekend’s best tilt, if it were not for the season-ending injury Jordan Travis suffered in Florida State’s game against Miami. With Travis under center, the Seminoles rolled through their ACC conference schedule and looked dominant doing it. Though, at times, Florida State was plagued by slow starts and had to string together late drives on a few occasions to go unscathed in the ACC.
Now that the Seminoles have had a few weeks to break in Tate Rodemaker at quarterback, they’ll have to face off against a smothering Louisville defense. The Cardinals have been allowing just shy of 18.5 points per game, but have not squared off against a set of skill players to the caliber of Florida State.
Even without Travis, Florida State possesses a slew of talented receivers and running backs who have proven able to carry the offensive load. From Keon Coleman to Trey Benson, the Seminoles have legitimate game breakers who will test this Cardinals defense. Benson, who shares similarities to Joe Mixon as an NFL prospect, has scored on multiple plays of 80+ yards.
This matchup will come down to the running backs, with Louisville’s Jawhar Jordan also being a bellcow back who can break the long run. Defenses are likely to dominate the matchup, but with a few big plays from both Coleman and Benson, the Seminoles can edge the Cardinals in this one.
Prediction: 26-23 Florida State over Louisville
The Aftermath of “The Game”
Going into Saturday’s matchup, the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines were both undefeated. Both teams carried top-three rankings for the first time since 2006, when the winner of “The Game” went on to play in a BCS title game. Both teams also possess loads of NFL talent on both sides of the ball, giving NFL fans a preview of what might be to come for their favorite teams.
For Ohio State, it came down to their inability to stop Michigan when the Wolverines had to convert key downs. Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy shined, connecting on key third and fourth-down throws throughout the game. The Wolverines were also able to ride Blake Corum, who finished “The Game” with the most rushing touchdowns in a single season by a Michigan player. Corum came up with his own key third and fourth down conversions, but helped Michigan gain separation with a 22-yard touchdown scamper late in the third quarter.
Ohio State, meanwhile, failed to make the big play when it mattered. Quarterback Kyle McCord was forced to lean on Marvin Harrison Jr., which provided mixed results for the Buckeyes. On two of Harrison’s targets, McCord was intercepted. The star receiver, though, consistently beat Michigan coverage and hauled in a couple big gains, including a touchdown in the fourth quarter to keep the game close.
In the end, Harrison and the Buckeyes were not able to finish a drive that could have won them the game. Now, Michigan is set to square off against an Iowa team that leans heavily on their defense. The Wolverines, however, have shown dominant against just about every team they’ve played, and have the players to make big plays when it matters.
Prediction: 25-10 Michigan over Iowa
A Seismic Rematch in the Desert
Without any serious chaos coming out of rivalry weekend in the Pac-12, the Washington Huskies are set to square off against the Oregon Ducks. This finale for the Pac-12 is a rematch that gives college football fans a clash between two of the country’s top five teams. While Oregon barely lost to Washington in their regular season matchup, both teams have beat tough opponents in convincing fashion. A close loss by Washington, coupled with a few outcomes of other conference championship games, could in fact spell a four-team playoff bracket that includes both the Huskies and Ducks.
Oregon has been riding the arm and legs of their fifth-year senior quarterback, Bo Nix, and a dangerous rushing attack that is led by Bucky Iriving. In his final regular season game as a Duck, Nix completed more than 80% of his throws and accounted for three touchdowns as Oregon toppled Oregon State. Nix finished the regular season as the nation’s leader in passing yards, and completion percentage. His touchdown to interception ratio for the season finished at 37-2. Needless to say, the Ducks success runs through Nix.
Now that Washington and Oregon are set to face off in the Pac-12 title game, fans get to see another battle of superstar quarterbacks. Washington, like Oregon, runs through Michael Penix Jr., their super senior quarterback. Both Penix and Nix are playing for Pac-12 supremacy, but the eyes of many NFL scouts will surely be watching these quarterbacks duke it out in Las Vegas. Washington doesn’t have the dynamic running game that Oregon does, but few quarterbacks have been capable of putting a team on their back like Penix.
Much like the team’s regular season clash, which went in Washington’s favor, this contest will likely come down to which star players will step up with big performances. Both teams have their own edge: for Oregon, it’s the three-headed rushing attack they boast, while for Washington, it’s their multi-pronged passing attack. The winner of this game will likely be decided by which team has the ball last.
Overall, Oregon has looked in control throughout more of their games than Washington, which is why the Ducks will steal this highly-anticipated rematch.
Prediction: 37-34 Oregon over Washington
A Big 12 Showdown in Texas
With a win over Texas Tech, the Longhorns stamped their ticket to the Big 12 Championship game. After losing to the Red Raiders last season, Texas dominated Texas Tech this time around. The Longhorns made easy work of their rivals, outscoring them 47-0 after the first quarter of action.
Now, for Texas, they take on a feisty, albeit inconsistent, Oklahoma State squad. The Cowboys have needed consecutive late-game comebacks in order to remain alive in what has been a whacky Big 12 race. Ollie Gordon II, Oklahoma State’s star running back, has scored eight times in the last two games. This offense runs through him. Shutting down Gordon and the ground game, much like UCF did, will be the winning formula for Texas. Oklahoma State simply does not have the sort of playmakers, especially on the perimeter, that Texas does.
While the Cowboys ground game has flourished, their passing attack has led to multiple turnovers. Texas, meanwhile, has four defenders with multiple interceptions. Through 12 games, the Longhorns have also forced 7 fumbles. Five Longhorns receivers have produced catches of more than 40 yards, and they possess one of college football’s best receivers in Xavier Worthy.
With a big performance from quarterback Quinn Ewers, plus a key turnovers from the defense, Texas should be able to cruise to victory. A convincing win would go a long way in bolstering their playoff chances, so there’s motivation for the Longhorns to pour it on the Cowboys.
Prediction: 41-20 Texas over Oklahoma State
Projected Final Playoff Bracket:
- Michigan
- Oregon
- Texas
- Alabama
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