After an epic weekend of conference championship games, the bracket is set for college football’s final 4-team playoff. Florida State, despite going undefeated in the regular season, was left out of the tournament. The Seminoles deserved a bid but couldn’t overcome their quarterback injuries to receive enough love from the playoff committee. This marked the first time an undefeated conference champion was left out of the playoffs.

Alabama, meanwhile, snuck into the playoffs after toppling the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs. They are set to face Michigan, which looks to be a favorable matchup for the Crimson Tide. 

Here are a few key matchups to watch in the Rose Bowl:

The Milroe Effect

Behind Jalen Milroe, Alabama has been dominant since overcoming a second-half deficit to Tennessee in October. The game against Tennessee marked a turnaround for both Milroe and the Tide, as this put into motion an offense that has played mostly clean football. Alabama turned the ball over twice in the first half against Tennessee and only turned the ball over two more times in the five games since that win. Allowing Milroe to make plays with his legs has yielded huge results for the Crimson Tide, and protecting him has also been huge for Alabama. Through November and December, Milroe only took 8 sacks; in the two months prior, he was sacked 30 times. 

For Michigan, stopping Alabama starts with shutting down Milroe. If the Wolverines can force the Crimson Tide to be one-dimensional, and win through the air, they have a chance to win. Michigan leads the nation on defense, allowing less than 10 points per game. But they have yet to play an offense with the same caliber quarterback as Milroe. Michigan has recorded 16 interceptions and forced 12 fumbles in 13 games, so they will be relying heavily on the defense to make a difference in this game.

If Michigan has to mount a comeback against Alabama, they will be in unfamiliar territory. Throughout the entire season, Michigan has only trailed in a game four times. The amount of time they trailed all season combines to be roughly two full quarters of play. Alabama, on the other hand, has had to engineer comebacks against teams like Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, and famously, Auburn. The adversity alone that Alabama has had to overcome factors into this game as much as any player or coach. 

The Significance of the Trenches

The way Michigan can win is by riding their run game, which should help J.J. McCarthy orchestrate an effective play-action game. Blake Corum has been a focal point of the Michigan offense, scoring 24 touchdowns on the ground, but the Wolverines have deployed a handful of other players to move the chains. McCarthy is at his best when the offense is in rhythm, so for Alabama, that means stuffing the run game to force Michigan into having to convert longer downs through the air. 

The Wolverines are not as dynamic on offense as the Texas team that beat Alabama in September, but they could use a similar script as Georgia did against Alabama when the Bulldogs threw the ball on 5 of their 7 first down attempts in the first half. Testing Alabama’s secondary, however, has proven difficult for just about any team besides Georgia and Texas. Three defenders from the Alabama secondary earned All-SEC honors, while Dallas Turner gives them a menace off the edge.

Ultimately, this game will come down to controlling the clock. Both teams built their identities around playing tough defense and wearing opponents down on the ground. For Alabama, they’ll need another big performance from Turner, and perhaps a big play by Milroe in crunch time.

If Michigan is to win, it will be on the back of McCarthy. 

Given how Alabama has looked over the last two months, and the struggles Michigan has endured late in the season, there’s reason to believe the Crimson Tide cruise to victory in this Rose Bowl semi-final. 

Final verdict

Alabama wins: 27-10