Washington and Michigan both earned a bid in the College Football Playoffs National Championship Game by making huge goal-line stands in their semi-final playoff games. For Michigan, it came down to stopping Alabama’s super-power: Jalen Milroe as a runner. As for Washington, they stymied a late comeback effort by Texas by keeping the Longhorns out of the endzone as the clock wound down. Both Michigan and Washington enter this game undefeated. Both will be playing in the Big Ten next year.

Here are a few key matchups for each team and a prediction of who will come out on top:

Keep em’ Honest

For Washington, the offense revolves around Michael Penix Jr. and his trio of elite receivers. But outside of the lethal passing attack, the Huskies have relied on the balance that their rushing attack offers. Penix helped engineer a nation-leading passing attack (per ESPN stats), but it has been running back Dillon Johnson who has come on strong as of late. Since the Huskies defeated Oregon in October, Dillon has been a focal part of the offense. Washington has given him 20 or more carries in six of their last nine games. In four of those games, Dillon ran for 100 or more yards. He also has 12 rushing touchdowns in that span.

While Penix has been dominant, it’s the presence of Dillon that has kept defenses honest. Even against tight man coverage, the Washington receivers have been able to excel. Without a formidable rushing attack, Washington’s offense is prone to becoming one-dimensional, and far less potent. A healthy Dillon means the Huskies will theoretically prevent Michigan from playing with light boxes and continue to draw favorable matchups for their receivers. It also means Washington will have a proven force in the backfield, as Dillon has outgained the next leading rusher for Washington by nearly 1,000 yards.

For as important as Dillon is, it is that trio of receivers who have made all the difference for Washington. In Ja’Lynn Polk and Rome Odunze, the Huskies have two 1,000-yard receivers. Even after missing time, Jalen McMillan has chipped in with more than 500 yards and 4 touchdowns. All three receivers have busted loose for receptions of 40+ yards this season (per ESPN stats). Washington’s passing attack goes beyond Odunze, Polk, and McMillan. Two tight ends have also caught multiple touchdowns for Washington, making this passing attack as diverse as it is dynamic. 

Couple the production through the air with the stellar play of Washington’s offense line, and this Huskies offense will be tough to slow down. Their matchup with Michigan makes for a battle of strengths. Washington took the crown from Michigan as having the nation’s top offensive line in 2023, and that Huskies line has only surrendered 11 sacks all season. Against Alabama, the Michigan defense had a feast. The Wolverines constantly harassed Jalen Milroe and neutralized one of Alabama’s strengths by collapsing the pocket and forcing Milroe off rhythm. 

Michigan will need a repeat performance from their defense to slow down Washington and win this game. It starts up front, where Michigan boasts a handful of blue-chip players. From the defensive line to the defensive backs, the Wolverines have had 12 different players record a sack this season. Four of those players have recorded more than four sacks. Against Alabama, the Wolverines defense disguised coverages and mixed up their pass-rushing packages to force six sacks. Doing the same thing against Washington will be key, but not exactly easy. The Huskies offensive line is better than the one Michigan faced in the Rose Bowl. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter will have his work cut out for him against Washington if the Wolverines are going to slow down the Huskies.

Michigan’s Edge

For the offense, Michigan’s rushing attack has carried them to comfortable wins nearly all season. Against Alabama, the Wolverines did not stray from their strategy and were able to keep the same script to grind out the game. A few big throws from J.J. McCarthy late in the game made the difference, but Michigan did not ask their quarterback to do too much. By controlling the line of scrimmage and churning out grounds on the ground, Michigan can have an advantage against Washington. On the season, the Huskies have surrendered more than 130 yards per game on the ground (per ESPN stats). Without slowing down Michigan’s run game, Washington could be in trouble.

Forcing McCarthy into making big-time throws, especially if Michigan goes down a score or two, will be essential for Washington. The Wolverines do not possess the caliber of receivers as Texas did, which almost led to the demise of Washington in the Sugar Bowl. But for as porous as the Huskies defense has been against the pass, they have not been so much a liability that makes for a poor matchup. Washington relies on a bend-but-don’t-break defense. If Michigan can bust a few big throws, while keeping their run game churning, they have a chance to keep pace with the Huskies.

For as good as the Michigan defense is, this game will come down to both offenses. Michigan has two stud running backs. Washington has three stud receivers and an elite quarterback. This is a battle of strengths.

So…who wins?

Washington over Michigan: 30-27