From Jim Harbaugh to Vic Fangio, big names hit the open market and quickly landed with teams during the 2024 coaching hire cycle. Still, eight head coaching positions came open after the 2023 season, underscoring just how difficult it is for teams to make the right hire.

Which coaching hires will be a hit?

The Harbaugh Effect

First, Jim Harbaugh has the best chance to succeed at his next stop. After lifting programs like the University of San Diego and Stanford into relevance over a decade ago, Harbaugh turned the San Francisco 49ers into a machine while he was there. The fallout between him and the front office was largely publicized, but it was not a product of poor results. Harbaugh won 44 regular season games in four seasons with the Niners and took his 2012 team to the Super Bowl. Tensions between Harbaugh and Jed York ultimately surfaced after a middling 2014 season. Michigan came calling in 2015, and the rest was history.

In Los Angeles, Harbaugh returns to his West Coast roots. Having cut his teeth with coaching teams like the Chargers, Raiders, and 49ers, the fit feels natural. Harbaugh has also been at his best when he has had a top-tier quarterback. In San Francisco, he revitalized Alex Smith‘s career before handpicking Colin Kaepernick in the draft and turning him into a star. He recruited Andrew Luck at Stanford. Harbaugh’s National Title-winning team at Michigan featured J.J. McCarthy, who is considered by many to be a top QB prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Harbaugh’s best teams in San Francisco were fueled by the defense. While Kaepernick’s emergence helped establish themselves as a gritty, run-heavy team, those 49ers teams beat teams up in the trenches. Coming to Los Angeles, Harbaugh has a few pieces to replicate this success. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack make up what is one of the better pass-rushing tandems in the NFL, though both have battled injuries. Rising star Tuli Tuipulotu is a name to watch, as he could have a meteoric rise like Aldon Smith did under Harbaugh. An effective pass-rush leads to stronger play from the secondary, and overall a better pass defense. The Chargers fielded the league’s third-worst pass defense in 2023 (per ESPN stats), so it’s likely Harbaugh starts there.

Outside of the pass defense, the front office (which is still without a standing General Manager) must make decisions on veteran players like Keenan Allen, Austin Ekler, and Mike Williams on offense. According to Spotrac, both Allen and Williams have potential outs after this season but carry heavy cap hits. Ekler is also a free agent. With Justin Herbert locked into a big deal, there’s a chance Harbaugh wipes the slate clean and starts building around his young quarterback for the future. But in San Francisco, Harbaugh leaned on guys like Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis to carry the offense, so there’s a good chance he at least hangs onto Williams but lets Allen and Ekler walk.

The outlook for Harbaugh and the Chargers is bright, despite Kansas City’s dominance in the division. But like in 2011, Harbaugh could take the league by storm and flip a roster that many expect to be more than a few pieces away from contending. Either way, Los Angeles got this one right.

Titans Crushed it With Callahan

Bill Callahan has been cutting his teeth in the NFL for more than a decade. He was a part of the Denver Broncos offensive staff in 2013 that led the league in scoring behind Peyton Manning, and also in 2015 when the Broncos won the Super Bowl. From there, he went to Detroit and coached Matthew Stafford before doing the same in Oakland with Derek Carr. Recently, Callahan teamed up with Joe Burrow and helped the Cincinnati Bengals engineer a handful of successful seasons on offense.

Callahan’s rapport with quarterbacks is what makes this hiring so fascinating. Tennessee recently flipped its offensive roster by drafting a new running back (Tyjae Spears), receiver (Treylon Burks), and quarterback in Will Levis. While Levis was not perfect in his 2023 rookie campaign, there were flashes to give reason to think he could be a star at the next level. Pushing the ball downfield, especially, will be an emphasis from this offensive staff. Levis has the arm to do it, too. Spears gives the offense a dynamic weapon out of the backfield and also has star potential.

There are holes to fill on the offensive line, but Callahan comes to a team that has the 7th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Couple that with the fact that teams are likely to be aggressive in moving up for quarterbacks, and the Titans could find themselves in an enviable spot. Furthermore, this class of offensive tackles is deep. Tennessee, then, appears poised to once again replenish the offensive side of the ball in this draft and help balance out a roster that has leaned heavily on its stifling defense.

Although it might take a few years to build the offense, Callahan and the Titans could be a force to be reckoned with. Tennessee crushed it with this hire.

Promising Pairing in the Desert

The Las Vegas Raiders hit the reset button, once again. After whiffing on Josh McDaniels, and letting Dave Ziegler go, Las Vegas entered this hiring cycle looking for stability. Given owner Mark Davis’ history with giving out long-term contracts (Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock come to mind), it’s clear Davis does not want to make the firing and hiring process a pattern.

Antonio Pierce stepped in and did an admirable job with the Raiders as interim head coach, leading the team to a 5-4 record and a 2nd place finish in the NFC West. Under Pierce, the Raiders won their first game and frankly looked like a much different team. Davis recently made the decision to hire Pierce as the permanent coach. What stands out about Pierce is his connection to players. Throughout the 2023 season, players vocalized their support for Pierce, and that even continued throughout the hiring process. Not only has Pierce shown he has his players’ trust, but he also handled the Raiders quarterback situation better than McDaniels did. While Aidan O’Connell might not be the future in Las Vegas, the rookie displayed flashes and kept the team largely competitive after stepping in as the starter when Pierce became interim head coach.

Pierce’s steadiness and bond with his players bodes well for him and the future of this team. But now, Pierce has a General Manager in Tom Tolesco who has proven the ability to assess talent and build a roster. In his ten years with the Chargers, Tolesco constructed largely competitive rosters. Injuries played a part in the Chargers’ short-comings, and one can argue that Tolesco never truly had an ace head coach working for him. Even if Pierce doesn’t become a star coach, the pairing of he and Tolesco is promising for the immediate future.

Las Vegas enters 2024 with holes on their roster. Under Pierce, the team over-achieved. But the cupboard is not bare. The Raiders boast one of the league’s best receivers (Devante Adams), and an elite pass rusher in Maxx Crosby. It remains uncertain if Josh Jacobs will be a part of the future, but regardless, the Raiders have a few young, promising pieces on offense that they can build around. It starts with finding a quarterback. But given Tolesco’s track record, it’s safer to assume that he will not overpay to trade up in the 2024 NFL Draft for a prospect he likes, and instead play the board to his liking. Even if the Raiders use their first-round pick on a blue-chip player on defense, they have shown that O’Connell can at least keep them competitive.

This rebuild in Las Vegas is likely to be lengthy. But with the hirings of Tolesco and Pierce, the Raiders appear to have their arrow pointing upward.