The franchise tag window in the NFL has officially opened. As expected, players like Tee Higgins, Josh Allen and Kyle Dugger received tags—Dugger getting the transition tag is no surprise, given that he has played more like a top-ten safety than a top-five, but should be a fixture of the Patriots’ defensive plans moving forward. But now, set to hit the open market are players like Saquon Barkley, Xavier McKinney, and Christian Wilkins—all of whom are considered at the top of the class at their respective positions. 

Before the free agency frenzy gets started, we’ll lay out a few predictions and hypothetical scenarios for certain teams that are expected to be active in March. 

Kraft Controls the Draft

For starters, the New England Patriots will have a lot to say about the 2024 NFL Draft. With the third overall pick, a litany of holes to fill on their roster, and a new regime effectively taking over, the Patriots offer the most mystery of any team in the league. They also have the potential to shape the draft for several teams. 

If New England decides to skip a few steps in their rebuild and tries to reward their fans after a few abysmal years, they could start by attacking the free agency market. One player that could put them closer to contention would be Kirk Cousins. A generous offer from Robert Kraft and company could sway Cousins away from resigning in Minnesota, which is a real possibility. With Cousins under center, New England could do one of two things: accept a trade bounty that is sure to be pushed their way for the third overall pick, or boost their offense even further by selecting Marvin Harrison Jr. with their first-round pick.

Having both Cousins and Harrison would give the Patriots serious firepower, and could immediately boost their chances of winning more games in 2024. For a team that ranked at the bottom of the NFL in terms of offensive production, this not only feels likely, it feels necessary. Even with Cousins in the building, New England could seek out their future signal caller in what is a sneaky good quarterback class. If that third pick gets flipped, the Pats could effectively control the draft board to their liking. If they take a shine to a developmental player like Spencer Rattler or Michael Pratt, this strategy could pay off in a big way. Cousins isn’t likely to sustain his high-level play for more than a few years—at best—which means New England could both bridge the gap with an upper-tier quarterback and also set themselves up for future success.

The alternative is that the Patriots go for a low-cost bridge quarterback like Jacoby Brissett, or even Gardner Minshew, and hope that Drake Maye falls to them. Jayden Daniels, for as talented as he is, doesn’t seem to scream New England like Maye does—that’s just a gut feeling. Going young at the position is never a bad idea, but looking at teams like the Jets, Jaguars, and even Chargers, of the recent past indicates that it takes more than just a blue-chip quarterback to get their franchise over the hump. For as enticing as Maye or even Daniels might be, it seems more logical for the Patriots to take one step back in order to take two or three forward. Add in the fact that their divisional rivals are all entering 2024 with a lot at stake, and the Patriots trading out of the third pick and building out for the future makes even more sense.

A Gamble Vegas Needs to Take

For as fitting as it would be for the Raiders to be the team to swoop in and select Daniels, if Maye does in fact get drafted by the Washington Commanders, the price is going to be steep. Since the Raiders are balancing a competitive rebuild of their own, does it make sense for Las Vegas to give up the house for a potential franchise quarterback? Yes. For two reasons: Davante Adams is not getting any younger, and both the Chargers and Broncos could be entering 2024 on something of a downswing. With Daniels at the helm, the Raiders could put together an explosive offense. Las Vegas could also utilize some of its substantial cap space to make a splash by signing a player like Wilkins to anchor their defensive front. As it stands, there are still holes to fill on defense, but the staff has a skilled coordinator in Luke Getsy who could maximize Daniels’ dual-threat ability. Giving up a 2024 and 2025 first-round pick, plus more, could backfire. But teams like the Raiders have shown to be prone to gamble on the high ceiling before even considering the floor.

A string of three consecutive quarterbacks going in the top three picks would set up the Cardinals to land Harrison and help their chances of becoming a whole lot better, right away. Harrison could be their Larry Fitzgerald and he would give the organization a chance to breathe as they finish eating that massive contract their predecessors gave out to Kyler Murray. Add in the fact that the New York Giants could select a quarterback at pick number six, and there’s plenty of intrigue behind how the top of the draft will play out. The reported love for the top three/four quarterbacks could also lead to a serious run on receivers in the top ten. Teams like the Tennessee Titans and Atlanta Falcons could benefit the most from this situation, as they could have their pick of the top offensive tackles or edge rushers on the board. New England, too, could use their new 13th overall pick to start building out their offensive line. 

A New Home for Fields

Even though Chicago continues to weigh its options, there’s a lot to like about the probability of Justin Fields landing in Atlanta. The price for the Falcons shouldn’t be astronomical, and the deal should emulate what the Panthers sent the Jets for Sam Darnold when Carolina sent a future second-round pick for the former third-overall pick. Of course, the Bears will look to sway the Falcons into giving up a high 2024 draft pick, but the Falcons are close enough to contention to kick that can down the road and try to maximize a season that Fields will likely be playing under an expensive fifth-year option. With a former scrambling quarterback in Zac Robinson leading the Falcons offense, and a much better supporting cast than he had in Chicago, Fields could flourish in Atlanta.

These are all hypothetical situations, but it is starting to feel imminent that an early run on quarterbacks and receivers will dominate the headlines at the 2024 NFL Draft. Teams like the Raiders, Patriots and Giants could be the ones who drive that narrative and make the storyline that much more compelling.