Heading into the 2024 season, Patrick Mahomes was the favorite for MVP, while Josh Allen was listed as a close second. Allen took home the award after narrowly beating out Lamar Jackson.
Although there are several familiar names atop the pre-season list of this year’s MVP favorites, there are a handful of up-and-coming players who could challenge for the award in 2025.
As always, do with this information what you will…
My 2025 NFL MVP: Jayden Daniels – Washington Commanders QB
Last year, Daniels lit the NFL world on fire with a dazzling performance for the Washington Commanders. Many of the things that Daniels showed at Arizona State and LSU translated to the next level. His scrambling ability (73 scrambles) made him tough to contain last year, but it was his second-gear which helped Daniels pick up nearly 900 yards on the ground with six rushes of 20+ yards. While Daniels took too many sacks (five games with 4 or more sacks), he picked up 55 first downs on the ground. Washington made a valiant effort to improve their offense in the offseason, but they’ll again be leaning on Brian Robinson and Austin Eckler (both will be free agents) and failed to upgrade the running back room. Neither Robinson nor Eckler has nearly the type of juice as Daniels, and while protecting the second-year quarterback will be a focus, there’s a good chance Daniels lets it rip again this season as a runner.
Adding Laremy Tunsil and Josh Conerly this offseason theoretically shores up the offensive line, lessening the burden on Daniels by giving him more time in the pocket. Whether or not Daniels replicates his remarkable rushing numbers from last season, the Commanders will again be leaning on his athleticism to be a driving force behind their offense.
As for his throwing ability, Daniels demonstrated the same deep-ball ability he showed in college and consistently (and confidently) tested defenses on long throws. While Terry McClaurin bailed Daniels out on more than one contested deep ball, there’s a good chance that connection remains strong and gives Daniels confidence in airing it out deep. With another year in Kliff Kingsbury’s air-raid offense, Daniels ceiling should continue to raise. The floor, however, might be lower, given that Dyami Brown departed after catching fire late last year, and the recent track record on Kingsbury’s offenses shows that defenses have learned how to adjust and scheme up ways to limit its big plays.
On the other hand, Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray along in his first years in Arizona. From year one to year two, Murray improved in several categories, including completion percentage, touchdowns thrown, QBR, and sacks taken. Murray’s rushing numbers also improved in year two under Kingsbury, which should help boost the optimism around Daniels in year two in Kingsbury’s offense.
Washington did benefit from having the league’s best 4th-down offense, and fared quite well in the red zone (63.4%). The Commanders were also the sixth-best offense at converting third downs last season. Metrics like that can be hard to replicate, so there’s a good chance Washington doesn’t have the same 4th-down luck as they did last year. Teams will surely have spent time trying to figure out how to scheme against Daniels, but his scrambling ability, confidence in his deep ball, and knack for converting first downs as a runner makes him a constant threat to keep the Commanders offense on the field and the team in contention for another playoff bid.
The value here is part of why Daniels sits atop this list.
FANDUEL Odds: +850
Bet MGM Odds: +850 (Opening Odds: +1100)
What’s the skinny on Daniels?
The second-year quarterback lit it up last season in Washington, helping the Commanders turn their franchise around in one season. His improvisation, clutch factor, electricity as a runner, and confidence as a deep-thrower make him one of the NFL’s most exciting up-and-coming players. So long as he can stay healthy, Daniels has a chance to be a perennial MVP contender.
Two MVP Favorites In Good Situations
Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills QB
Since the turn of the century, only two players have claimed MVP honors in back to back seasons (Aaron Rodgers in 2020 & 2021, and Peyton Manning in 2008 & 2009). Allen has the chance to pull off that rare feat, given how unique his skill set is and how heavily the Buffalo Bills rely on him as a runner. Last season, Allen recorded 28 passing touchdowns and 12 rushing touchdowns while throwing only six interceptions. While turnovers previously plagued Allen’s game, he also reduced his fumbles (five) and interceptions (six) both were career lows. Allen accomplished one of his best rushing seasons as a pro while recording his lowest attempts per game (6.0).
In the last two seasons combined, Allen has accounted for 27 rushing touchdowns. Although James Cook shoulders a big load in this offense, he’s more of a big-play back whereas Allen gets a strong share of the red zone calls. In 2024, all but one of Allen’s rushing touchdowns came in the red zone, and he recorded five rushing touchdowns from the one-yard line in the regular season (plus one in the playoffs). As a runner, Allen didn’t start heating up until after the Bills’ week 12 bye (four rushing touchdowns through first 11 weeks of the season). The rushing ability and heavy usage in the red zone help Allen maintain a high floor, even if the organization could look to maximize Cook while he’s under contract before potentially letting him walk.
Allen’s bump in production also coincided with Buffalo playing some of their hardest games, which portends well for the Bills, given their schedule this year. Their games against Baltimore, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, and Houston all have a chance to be high-scoring affairs, while New England gave Buffalo fits last year and will be vastly improved on both sides of the ball.
Behind Allen, who’s playing some of the best football of his career, Buffalo figures to be right back in the mix for the AFC. Though he’ll have to fend off other AFC elites like Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson for the award. Jackson, who was neck and neck with Allen last season, has already won two MVP awards, and only five players in NFL history have won the MVP award more than three times.
FANDUEL Odds: +600
Bet MGM Odds: +600 (Opening Odds: +600)
What’s the skinny on Allen?
Allen gives the Bills a legitimate goal-line back and has also improved his ball security after coming into the league with concerns about his accuracy. Even without a stud receiver, Allen is playing some of the best football of his career, and the arrow seems to only continue to be pointing upwards. A second MVP is absolutely realistic for Allen.
Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals QB
Over the last few years, slow starts for Cincinnati have severely hampered the Bengals’ ability to compete for Super Bowls. Last season was a tale of two seasons, with Cincinnati catching fire late but just barely missing the playoffs because of the hole they dug themselves in by going 4-8 before reeling off four straight wins to finish the season.
Burrow followed a similar path as the Bengals by heating up in the second half of the season, and the star quarterback nearly doubled his touchdown total in weeks 9-17 (28) compared to weeks 1-8 (15). While Burrow benefits from playing with arguably the league’s top receiving duo, his late-game heroics and clutch factor are part of what separates him from other MVP contenders.
In 2024, Burrow’s touchdown to interception ratio was 18 touchdowns to 2 interceptions when the Bengals were trailing in games (and that ratio was 14-2 when the Bengals were tied). While unsustainable, Burrow’s red zone stats were remarkable in 2024: he threw 30 touchdowns to 0 interceptions in the red zone last season. Burrow also has steadily improved his interception percentage over the course of his career, and in 2024 threw only 9 interceptions on 653 pass attempts.
The organization locking down Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins bodes well for the immediate and future outlook of the Bengals offense, as does the resigning of Mike Gesicki at tight end. The trio combined for more than half of the Bengals’ first down conversions through the air, and Higgins missed several games last year. Cincinnati needs better production out of Chase Brown at tailback, but adding Tahj Brooks in the draft should help improve a run game that struggled to generate big plays last season.
While slow starts have prevented this team from returning to the playoffs, the Bengals have also dealt with subpar play on both the offensive line and on defense. Burrow’s heroics have helped mitigate the struggles on defense, but the offensive line is again something of a question heading into 2025. While Burrow lit up the stat sheet in 2024, he took 48 sacks. The Bengals tweaked their offensive line in the offseason but are relying on Amarius Mims to take a step forward in year two, and also need Dylan Fairchild to play well at left guard as a rookie.
Like the offensive line and running back room, the organization focused on addressing the defense this offseason. Cincinnati is banking on Al Golden to improve the defense after the unit declined under Lou Anarumo (the Bengals ranked 25th in scoring and yards allowed last season). There’s optimism behind the players on the back end and at linebacker, but there are questions about the pass rush outside of Trey Hendrickson.
With how well Burrow performs in the clutch and how heavily focused the offense is on throwing the ball, the defense doesn’t need to be spectacular for the Bengals to bounce back. In fact, a porous defense could equate to more scoring opportunities for Cincinnati’s offense. But another year with 45+ sacks and a subpar run game could severely hamper Burrow’s chances of winning MVP.
FANDUEL Odds: +600
Bet MGM Odds: +750 (Opening Odds: +750)
What’s the skinny on Burrow?
Burrow gives the Cincinnati Bengals a chance to win any game, so long as he’s healthy. Last year was arguably his best as a pro, and Burrow can build off that by having his two top receivers back, and a (theoretically) improved defense and run game. Burrow’s clutch-factor is one of his biggest strengths, and that’s the sort of thing MVP voters take note of.
Three Long Shots Who Have a Chance
Jahmyr Gibbs – Detroit Lions RB
The third-year running back out of Alabama is as dynamic as they come at the position. Since his days at Georgia Tech, Gibbs has shown rare breakaway speed as a runner, plus he has the skills to make an impact as a receiver. Gibbs was even an explosive returner in college.
In Detroit, it took a while for the keys to get handed over to Gibbs, but if 2025 is anything like what he flashed in 2024, the running back has a chance to have a special season.
In seven regular seasons (plus one playoff game), Gibbs averaged more than 6 yards per carry while running for more than 1,400 yards, and also pulling in 52 catches on 63 targets for more than 500 yards and four touchdowns. With the amount of weapons and the way the Lions spread the ball around, Gibbs’ receiving production is all that much more impressive.
His rushing touchdowns (16) in 2024 dwarfed his rookie total (2), and the usage has a lot to do with that. Running backs not named Adrian Peterson have had an incredibly difficult time cracking into the quarterback competition that the MVP race has become, but if Gibbs can build on his momentum from last year, there’s no reason to think he can’t receive votes in the way that Saquon Barkley did in 2024. While it’s a long shot, the value here is too difficult to ignore.
FANDUEL Odds: +10000
Bet MGM Odds: Not Listed
Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys QB
Although Mike McCarthy is gone, there is continuity with Prescott and Brian Schottenheimer in Dallas. With a full season under Schottenheimer as offensive coordinator in 2023, Prescott put up career numbers in several categories and actually finished second in the MVP race to Lamar Jackson.
The Cowboys also should have an improved supporting cast of pass catchers after their trade for George Pickens. Dallas has been sorely lacking a presence at receiver opposite Ceedee Lamb, and Pickens can play at an extremely high level when he is locked in. Although the running game leaves a lot to be desired, and was a disappointment last year, the Cowboys offense looks to be improved after the Pickens trade, despite the retirement of Zach Martin, the injury to Tyler Guyton, and the injury to the newly acquired Rob Jones.
The Cowboys’ offense experienced a drop-off last year, largely due to injuries to Prescott and an inefficient run game, but in the three years preceding last year (2021-2023), Dallas finished as a top-five scoring offense. Between 2021-2023, they also finished in the top eleven in terms of total offensive yards each season.
With the emergence of Ceedee Lamb as a true number one receiver, Dallas joins teams like Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Miami as having two (potentially) elite receivers to go with a proven, veteran quarterback. Pickens doesn’t need to become Tee Higgins, and he won’t ever be a downfield threat like Jaylen Waddle, but his big-play ability could transform the Cowboys offense.
So long as he’s been in Dallas, Prescott has been proficient at avoiding sacks and although the loss of Martin hurts, the Cowboys have established a strong pipeline of talent and should again field one of the league’s better offensive lines. An upgrade at defensive coordinator should also bode well for Dallas after the unit experienced a drop-off last season, creating more scoring opportunities for Prescott and the offense.
The schedule sets up relatively well for Dallas, with matchups against teams like Detroit, Philadelphia, Washington, and Kansas City all presenting high-scoring opportunities. The Cowboys do have to play Denver, one of the league’s stingiest defenses, but they also get to play a rebuilding Giants team twice, plus a subpar (defensively) Panthers team.
So long as Prescott stays healthy, there’s a lot to like about his potential to bounce back in a big way and again be in the thick of the MVP race as the season winds down.
FANDUEL Odds: +4000
Bet MGM Odds: +3500 (Opening Odds: +3500)
Brock Purdy – San Francisco 49ers QB
Like the Cowboys, the San Francisco 49ers experienced a down year (also due in part to injuries). Both teams spent the offseason addressing their offenses, and both teams should see improvement in several categories this season.
Last year, the 49ers dealt with injuries to Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk, forcing them to lean on rookies like Ricky Pearsall and Isaac Guerendo to carry the load. While Pearsall performed well, his 2024 season started out on an awful note and a full, healthy offseason to build chemistry with Purdy should help the offense improve.
Additions at running back (Jordan James) and the return of Aiyuk should create a more balanced offense. George Kittle still remains one of the best receiving tight ends in the league, giving Purdy a safety blanket who can bust loose a big gain. While fans saw the floor for the 49ers last season, San Francisco’s track record over the past several years should provide some optimism for what 2025 should look like.
Purdy entered the league on a hot start (5-0 as a rookie) and has maintained steady play under Kyle Shanahan (23-13 as a starter). Winning matters for MVP votes, and while Purdy’s numbers don’t compare as well on paper to the likes of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Patrick Mahomes, the fact that Purdy has been able to perform at a relatively high level when things around him fell apart helps Purdy maintain a respectable floor for this award. The 49ers have also gone to four of the previous six NFC Championship games, which helps raise the floor for Purdy and his chances to win the award.
Even with the injuries to the offense in 2024, Purdy performed well. He was able to lean on Kittle, but also saw his receivers drop 19 passes and had to play behind a struggling offensive line. Purdy recorded a career high in scrambles but has historically been efficient once he breaks out of the pocket (6.8 yards per scramble).
Purdy is also not afraid to push the ball down the field and has displayed an ability to trust his arm by putting the ball into tight windows. All of this matters because Purdy has shown that, despite the offensive ecosystem, he’s not simply a game manager. If Pearsall can build off his strong finish to 2024 (18 catches, 247 yards), the 49ers offense should be in for a bounce back.
With the league’s (projected) easiest schedule, the 49ers should benefit from a smoother road in 2025. While McCaffrey and Aiyuk’s availability will factor into the ceiling of the offense, San Francisco’s defense looks poised for a big bounce back after a poor showing in 2024. So long as the 49ers are back in the NFC race, Purdy should be able to contend for MVP honors.
FANDUEL Odds: +2800
Bet MGM Odds: +2800 (Opening Odds: +2800)
A Not So Long Shot?
Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars QB
After arriving at Clemson as a highly touted recruit and entering the NFL Draft as a “generational” prospect, Lawrence has yet to live up to his billing. Poor coaching and injuries at wide receiver have largely contributed to what has been a mediocre start to Lawrence’s NFL career, despite the organization’s efforts to surround him with playmakers at receiver, running back, and tight end. Heading into 2025, Lawrence and the Jaguars look to be improved on paper, with upgrades on the coaching staff and at the receiver position.
The emergence of Brian Thomas Jr. last year is part of what boosts the optimism around what the Jaguars offense can look like with more competent coaching and a better infrastructure. Liam Coen helped coax a career year out of Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay last year, and inherits a group of receivers in Jacksonville with similar skillsets to the ones he had in Tampa Bay. While Thomas is not Mike Evans, he possesses similar traits as a receiver and is arguably more explosive on down field throws.
Last season, Thomas didn’t heat up until December (490 yards and 5 touchdowns), but flashed immense potential as a true number one receiver. It is worth noting that the rookie phenom’s numbers peaked when Lawrence was out of the lineup, as Thomas saw an increase in targets and receptions with Mac Jones at quarterback. Thomas’ floor alone, however, gives reason to think the Jaguars offense should be improved with Coen calling the shots. Adding Travis Hunter and Dyami Brown also bolsters the offense’s outlook, as Hunter has exceptional ball skills and could become an immediate threat in the red zone, while Brown should give the offense a reliable option on underneath and shorter routes.
Lawrence makes this list largely based off potential, given that Coen’s offensive scheme helped the Buccaneers make big strides last season, but the Jaguars quarterback also can hurt defenses with his legs. He might not be the dynamic runner like Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson, but Lawrence is effective as a runner, especially on scrambles.
Inconsistent play along the offensive line has also hindered Lawrence’s ability to accurately distribute the ball on a consistent basis (over his career, Lawrence has faced pressure on 18.9% of his drop backs), but the team made a handful of signings in the offseason and has spent multiple early round draft picks on their offensive line since drafting Lawrence first overall in 2021.
The Jaguars benefit from playing in arguably the NFL’s weakest division, and they also have matchups against high-octane offenses throughout the year, which could create more scoring opportunities for Jacksonville’s offense. While the run game has been lacking (the Jaguars finished in the bottom third of the league in rushing yards in both 2023 and 2024), Coen showed an ability to turnaround the Bucs rushing attack in just one year and has capable backs in Tank Bigsby, Travis Ettiene, and rookie Bhayshul Tuten.
While the race for MVP will be highly competitive, Lawrence has the benefit of playing under a proven offensive mind in Coen and will be playing in an offense with a rising star (Thomas) as well as a high-upside rookie (Hunter) at receiver. If things break right and the Jaguars’ offense emerges as a top-five unit, Lawrence could find himself in the thick of the MVP race as the season winds down.
FANDUEL Odds: +4500
Bet MGM Odds: +3500 (Opening Odds: +3500)
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